One pro predicted Xander Schauffele’s incredible major season | Monday Finish

Xander Schauffele is the 2024 Open Champion.

Xander Schauffele is the 2024 Open champion.

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Welcome back to the Monday Finish, where we imagine Colin Montgomerie was watching Biden’s decision to retire while nodding in approval. Let’s get to the news!

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GOLF STUFF I LIKE
Who saw Xander Schauffele coming? This pro

It’s hardly breaking news that Xander Schauffele is among the best golfers in the world; that much has been true for a half-decade. But until this May, years of near-misses in majors left his detractors focusing on what he hadn’t done instead of what he had.

That’s fine, that’s sports. But one person was eager to predict a different, major-filled future for Schauffele: Max Homa.

Just after the 2021 U.S. Open, where Homa had been grouped with Schauffele the first two rounds, he recorded a podcast with Shane Bacon to break down the week. Xander ultimately played his way into contention and finished T7, five shots behind red-hot winner Jon Rahm, but Homa was blown away by his game and made it clear just how bright he thought his future was.

“That kid is so freaking good,” he told Bacon. “I was reading comments about how [Schauffele] doesn’t close. Well, Rahm hadn’t closed either. I just wish people were a little more patient. I know that’s going to not happen, but he is good at every part of the game of golf. By good I mean really, really good.

“I’m obviously biased because I’m a friend of his and a huge fan of his but like, in my opinion there will be a time when he’s going to win one of these things and he’s going to be the guy, similar to Rahm, where it could get scary for a bit with how many he might be able to win. I’m talking majors or PGA Tour events. Both … he’s that guy. When he starts winning these things, it could just start coming multiple times a year and you wouldn’t even be shocked when he does it because it just looks so simple. He’s really good.”

Here we are. It just happened multiple times this year. It’s tough to feel too shocked. Schauffele made it look simple. And he’s really, really good.

In just two months the 30-year-old has now vaulted from the best player without a major to a guy with as many or more than most of the best players of his generation. Of men’s golfers under the age of 40 only Brooks Koepka (five), Rory McIlroy (four) and Jordan Spieth (three) have more major wins, and he’s alongside an impressive two-win group of Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau. No pretenders there. Better yet, Schauffele’s major wins came thanks to two final-round 65s — the first at the PGA at Valhalla to break the major scoring record and the second on Sunday at Royal Troon, where he shot a bogey-free round of six under that was low score of the day by two and, he declared, the best round of his life.

Schauffele changed his career narrative at Valhalla, but the few naysayers who remained could still cite the soft conditions and low scores as something less than the demands of a proper major. That wasn’t the case this week; there was no hiding at Troon, where most of the field eventually got blown away, particularly on a wet, windy, heinous Saturday afternoon. Schauffele out-scrapped ’em all.

And as a result, everything is different. The two majors speak for themselves, but they also cast Schauffele’s past near-misses in a more positive light. He had a dozen top-10s and 20 top-20s at majors before his first win, which used to get thrown around insultingly; now those are evidence of his quality. His majors feel well earned. Even his Olympic gold medal will look a little shinier next to the claret jug. And his preposterous consistency at the majors — 11 top-20s in a row — can be celebrated, wince-free.

A few paragraphs back I wrote that one person was eager to predict Schauffele’s dramatic rise, but there were actually at least two. We do “staff picks” before every major and I’ve basically picked Xander to win every single time for the last four years. I just checked the archives and tracked down our picks from Kiawah in 2021, where I wrote that Schauffele “might be the best player in the game.” At the time it may have sounded delusional. In reality? I was just ahead of the curve. So now comes the gloating, for Schauffele and (more importantly) for me. He wins arguably the most prestigious trophy in the game, I win some fake internet money. Everybody leaves happy. And Max Homa was right. That’s golf stuff I like.

WINNERS
Who won the week?

Xander Schauffele won the Open Championship; it’s his second major and his ninth PGA Tour win.

Chanettee Wannasaen claimed her second LPGA Tour win at the Dana Open in Toledo, Ohio; she poured in a 15-footer for birdie at No. 18 to seal the deal.

Nick Dunlap won the opposite-field Barracuda Championship in Lake Tahoe; he now has two PGA Tour wins in his young PGA Tour career.

NOT-WINNERS
An intriguing group came just short at the Open.

Before this year Billy Horschel had only logged one major top-10 — and it came in 2013. But he finished T8 at the PGA and played his way to the 54-hole lead this week; he even shot three-under 68 on Sunday. But that left him two strokes short in T2.

“I’m disappointed. I should feel disappointed. I had a chance to win a major,” he said post-round. “But we’ll look back on this in an hour, I’ll be very happy with how I played, I’ll be very happy with what I did this week. I did a lot of great things that I can take on to the next few years of majors, and hopefully one of these will be my time to step through the door.”

Justin Rose has been chasing a second major for over a decade and this was as good a chance as he’s had of late; he finished T2 alongside Horschel, his eighth top-six major finish since winning the U.S. Open at Merion in 2013. He said he was proud but “gutted” walking off the course.

“Well, I won second place, I won points, I won prizes, FedExCup points, all that stuff,” he said, describing his birdie putt at No. 18. “At that point, you’re being a professional.

“Then I walk ten steps later, and I’m choking back tears. So that’s the shift. Yeah, just personal, and enjoying 18 with the fans too. I just think it’s such an amazing stage. For me, like that’s the best look in golf, those two long grandstands that you walk down and the big yellow leaderboard. That’s what I associate with a magic moment.”

There were others in position. Thriston Lawrence played his way into the lead on the front nine Sunday but stalled on the back; he wound up in fourth feeling “very proud.”

There was Russell Henley, who hadn’t recorded a top 20 here since 2015, finished fifth behind him; he made 16 pars and two birdies on Sunday to finish four back. “It was just great to feel like I was in control of my game under pressure, feeling uncomfortable in an uncomfortable style of golf I haven’t really played well before, so just gives me a lot of confidence,” he said.

And Shane Lowry, who held the lead on the front nine Saturday before playing his final 10 holes in seven over par; he rebounded with a Sunday 68 but it wasn’t enough.

“How could you not look back on it positively, a chance to win The Open? Obviously the critics and whatnot will say that I probably should have won from where I was yesterday afternoon, but it’s not easy out there. It’s not easy to win tournaments like this,” he said.

SHORT HITTERS
Other Open notes, in brief.

–Jon Rahm was LIV’s top finisher; he had a happier end to what had been a disappointing major season with a T7.

-If you put together cumulative major scores for the 13 players who made all four cuts in 2024, Schauffele won in a blowout at 32 under par. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (T7 at the Open) was second at 17 under, with Morikawa (T16) third at 15 under.

–Adam Scott finished T10 a week after a runner-up result at the Scottish Open; it’s his best major finish since 2019. He drew an interesting comparison to Sergio Garcia and Justin Rose post-round.

“I’d sum it up, our career paths have been very similar,” he said. “We’ve all had our ups and downs, but we’ve all kind of achieved similar things in our career. I think there’s pride amongst the three of us to keep going. Just with the timing of our career, we weren’t good enough in Tiger’s peak, but then we kind of got our shot 10 years later, and always being nearly a great of the game is spurring us on, I think, to keep going for a few more years.”

-Schauffele’s win meant that Americans swept the majors for the first time since 1982. But the leaderboard was largely international; there were just six Americans in the top 24.

–Matthew Jordan finished T10 at last year’s Open as Liverpool’s lovable local kid. He finished T10 at this year’s Open, too, punching his ticket for next year — and he did so by shooting 71-71-71-71. That’s as level a week as you’ll get.

ONE DUMB GRAPHIC
The Scheffler/Schauffele Era is here.

we’re talking exponential growth pic.twitter.com/aClSWat0XL

— Dylan Dethier (@dylan_dethier) July 22, 2024
ONE SWING THOUGHT
Xander Schauffele on links golf:

“I think the style of golf maybe helped me mentally play this week. The style of golf you can play out here, you don’t have to be perfect or hit the prettiest drives or anything. As long as you’re moving the ball forward and dodging bunkers and keeping holes in front of you and making sure your chips are into the wind, all the stuff that us pros talk about, it’s easy to talk about. It’s harder to actually do when you’re out there.”

Good stuff. How many of you are making sure your chips are into the wind?

ONE BIG QUESTION
What do we make of Brooks Koepka’s season?

After an opening-round 70 it seemed like maybe this would be a week for Brooks Koepka to jump back into contention at a major for the first time since last year’s PGA win. Instead he faded with a Friday 73 and Saturday 78; Sunday’s 71 left him T43. I mentioned earlier the list of 13 pros to make every major cut this season, and Koepka’s name is on that list. But his finishes — T45, T26, T26, T43 — aren’t what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. The question, then: which Koepka should we expect going forward? The guy that finished T2 at last year’s Masters and won the PGA or the guy who has one bad round (Saturday 74 at Valhalla, Friday 75 at Pinehurst, Saturday 78 at Troon) derail his chances each major?

We’ll have our next data point in April.

ONE THING TO WATCH
Padraig Harrington in action…

…alongside our Michael Bamberger. Two of golf’s true originals and top characters. You won’t regret it.

NEWS FROM SEATTLE
Monday Finish HQ.

Seattle’s own Cameron Davis — we have him on loan from Australia — settled at first alternate at the Open, even after his Rocket Mortgage win. This year was particularly cruel for alternates, as the Open accepted 159 players but decided they wouldn’t accept alternates until the field got back to 156. Two players dropped out, so they teed off Thursday with 157, including two twosomes — but Davis, at No. 41 in the world, was left waiting and watching.

Even worse? This is the second consecutive year Davis is first alternate. He waited around all Thursday last year at Royal Liverpool, but no dice. And even worse than that, according to an interview with Golf Digest, in 2022 he said officials told him his alternate number was too high, so he stayed home — but would have gotten in.

Here’s hoping for better luck next year.

We’ll see you next week!

Before I send you on your way, one last chance: this column is available in newsletter form, free in your inbox every Monday, if you sign up HERE.

Dylan welcomes your comments at [email protected].