FedEx Cup Playoffs bubble watch: Who will make it to East Lake?

Tommy Fleetwood watches a putt in Memphis.

Tommy Fleetwood is the first man out in the standings entering the week.

Mike Mulholland/Getty Images

Not only did the first week of the FedEx Cup Playoffs produce high drama for the player that lifted the trophy, but it also saw major movement toward the other end of the standings with who did and didn’t make the field for this week’s BMW Championship.

In all, while it looked like more at several points, just three players — Viktor Hovland, Eric Cole and Nick Dunlap — moved into the coveted top 50 in the standings. With three moving in, three — Tom Kim, Mackenzie Hughes and Jake Knapp — moved out, Kim doing so in dramatic fashion, making six on the final three holes to become the first man out.

Others, like Keegan Bradley, just squeaked out a berth in the BMW Championship, and by extension, all eight of next year’s Signature Events. Bradley came into the week at 39th in the standings and finished T59 in Memphis, but that was just enough to keep him as the last man in the field at Castle Pines.

My colleague James Colgan summarized what it now means to earn that top 50 berth, but what comes next is still the ultimate prize with a spot in the Tour Championship. In addition to entry into the Signature Events, Tour Championship participants get a two-year exemption on Tour, entry into the Masters and, traditionally, spots in the U.S. Open and Open Championship. Not to mention they are also jockeying for position in the Tour Championship’s unique staggered-strokes format where they will play for the now-$100 million FedEx Cup bonus pool.

This season, based on the current standings, the top 19 players in the BMW Championship are locked into making next week’s field in Atlanta, and according to our friends at Data Golf, four more players have at least a 98-percent chance of advancing to East Lake.

That leaves us with 27 players on and around the bubble this week in Colorado. Keep reading below for more on this week’s FedEx Cup Playoffs bubble at the BMW Championship.

BMW Championship top 30 bubble
No. 25 Jason Day: It was a well-timed return to the top 50 of the FedEx Cup standings last year with Day’s first win in five years in Dallas. While he hasn’t been quite as stellar as 2023, Day has quietly put together four top-10s and eight top-25s this year, not counting a T9 at the Olympics.

No. 29 Brian Harman: Last year’s Champion Golfer of the Year has been quiet as well in 2023. He’s made the cut in all but two of his starts this season and none since the Masters and racked up 10 top 25s, but just three were top 10s.

Denny McCarthy watches a drive in Memphis.
Denny McCarthy is this week’s bubble boy. Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images